The severe scenario does not arise from a single administrative efficiency. It requires a combination: centralisation of product lines or bid leadership, lower Italian procurement, delay to at least one exploration programme, underutilisation of newly built assets and insufficient absorption capacity. It is the accumulation of these events that turns a manageable adjustment into a wider industrial problem.
The extreme scenario adds a demand discontinuity—for example a major revision of lunar programmes, prolonged post-ISS delays or the loss of major EO bids—together with governance that uses foreign capacity as the lead site. It is a boundary case designed to test the robustness of safeguards, not to describe the most likely outcome. Its plausibility rises only if several indicators deteriorate together over multiple quarters.
Involuntary exits remain the last link. Earlier signals typically include hiring freezes, reductions in agency workers and consultants, non-renewal of contracts, unfilled attrition, mobility and lower orders. Suppliers may feel the impact faster because a commercial contract can end long before a collective process appears at the prime contractor.
Industrial policy adds value when it breaks the accumulation of triggers before the problem reaches headcount and supplier cash flow.
