In the selective scenario, Turin retains the hardest-to-replicate core—structures, special processes and part of integration—but gives up some common functions, software or bid responsibilities. Existing backlog protects the near term and new programmes are shared with sites such as Bremen and Stevenage. The site remains industrially relevant but becomes less autonomous.
The model estimates a change of −80/−190 FTE at the site and −70/−170 in the supply chain. Much of the effect can be absorbed through attrition, lower contractor use, retraining and voluntary mobility; a residual of 0–50 direct exits becomes possible if programme timing does not match the pace of absorption. Suppliers may feel the adjustment earlier through lower orders and fewer peaks.
Scenario B matters because it represents the grey zone that requires the most active management: the site is not in crisis, but it is losing pieces of autonomy. If bid leadership, hiring and capex deteriorate together, selective specialisation can slide toward the severe scenario without any single dramatic event.
Selective specialisation remains manageable while it is paired with new bids, investment and technical career paths; it becomes risky when autonomy keeps shrinking.
