Scenario D — extreme downside

Scenario D combines a demand shock with a transfer of authority. Several programmes are heavily revised or delayed; a foreign site becomes lead for habitats or exploration systems; Turin loses leadership of new bids; make-or-buy turns unfavourable; F70 and related investment remain underutilised; and redeployment into other Italian activities is limited. It is the boundary of the stress test, not a forecast of Bromo’s outcome.

Analysis by Alessandro Sannini Last editorial revision 2026-10-02

The model estimates a change versus the counterfactual of −380/−580 FTE at the site and −300/−540 in the supply chain, for −680/−1,120 in total. After attrition, mobility, retraining, contractors and voluntary measures are exhausted, a residual of 180–360 direct exits could remain possible. Collective or individual redundancies belong only to this residual stage and are not treated as inevitable.

Systemic damage would exceed the employment effect. Revenue, margins, SME orders, F70/FSW3 utilisation, the ability to attract ASI/ESA programmes and ALTEC’s critical mass would fall. The model also associates the scenario with −€390/−890 million of cumulative industrial content over 2027–2032. Most importantly, dispersing integrated teams and tacit knowledge would take years and fresh investment to rebuild.

The extreme scenario tests whether safeguards remain effective when several shocks coincide; it should not be mistaken for an outcome forecast.